FSU expert: Third consecutive La Ni帽a could bring more hurricanes
Meteorologists predict current La Ni帽a conditions will persist this year through a third consecutive winter, a situation that usually brings a more active late hurricane season, followed by a dry and warm fall and winter across Florida.
La Ni帽a is the popular name for a phase of what meteorologists call the 鈥淓l Ni帽o-Southern Oscillation,鈥 or ENSO, a recurring pattern of relatively warmer and cooler surface-water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Ni帽o is the warmer period, and La Ni帽a is the cooler period.
David Zierden is a research associate at 糖心vlog鈥檚 Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies and serves as state climatologist for Florida. He is available to speak to media about the forecasted La Ni帽a conditions and their likely impacts in Florida and the southeastern U.S.
David Zierden, research associate, FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies; state climatologist at the Florida Climate Center
(850) 644-3417; dzierden@fsu.edu
As the state climatologist for Florida, Zierden studies climate variability and how it affects agriculture, forestry, water and other industries and resources in the state. He has testified before a congressional committee about predicting and monitoring ENSO and its impacts.
鈥淭he El Ni帽o/La Ni帽a cycle is one of the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability across Florida and much of the Southeast. Despite being far removed from the Pacific Ocean, Florida is the state most affected by this fluctuation in sea-surface temperatures. The cold waters during La Ni帽a in the tropical Pacific usually bring an active hurricane season followed by warmer and drier conditions during Florida鈥檚 dry season from November to April. This is the third consecutive year of La Ni帽a, which led to a record hurricane season in 2020 and high activity in 2021. The onset of drought and increased wildfire activity usually accompanies La Ni帽a, but the state has avoided these impacts in the last two years. We may not be so lucky going into this third consecutive year.鈥